Manhattan Marketing Maven

Marketing Predictions for 2008

Its that time of the year when all true mavens whip out the crystal ball and attract attention with pretentious prognostications. So here's my valedictory analysis of 2007 and forward predictions for marketing and advertising trends in the new year.

Mobile will Meander. There are very few genuinely useful Mobile applications that ads or marketing messages can piggy-back on. The New York Port Authority is offering bridge and tunnel alerts and American Airlines has a great service for pinging me when my plane is late. But the fantasy of messing me as I pass a Starbucks, Barnes & Noble, Mickey D's or other establishment and cuing me to buy hasn't materialized.

Most people feel doubly intruded upon when you SPAM their mobile or their PDA. I'm not expecting mobile media to emerge strongly in 2008. Maybe somebody will surprise me, but I'm not expecting a local retailer, my breakfast cereal or any of my favorite brands to be reaching out to my mobile phone with any meaningful or motivating messages anytime soon.   

Brands Will Experiment With Social Networks. This is not my boldest prediction. But consider the fact that in spite of the hype there are few real cases of brands achieving awareness or sell-thru spikes from early experiences with social networks. And while some brands can claim first mover bragging rights, I'm not sure what they have to show for the effort. Terns like engagement and relationship-building are tossed around but definitions and quantification are hard to come by.

Lots of brands played around with and invested big bucks Second Life but hardly anyone has much to show for it. Some feel that being part of a simulation lends credence to real-life activity others opted for being part of the latest and greatest. Its a great example that just because the technology enables an activity it doesn't necessarily follow that the marketing activity is worth it or useful.

My experience is that social networks are an amusement for anyone who doesn't actually have something to do with their time. I have no reason to believe that cyber friends mirror real-life friends or that what people put on their sites accurately reflects who they are or who they want to be. Social networks have unleashed the aspirations and fantasies of a generation and placed a lot of silly and salacious material into the public domain. I'm hoping somebody will invent a utility tool that will allow you to load or update words, images or video on your page on several networks at once.

LinkedIn continues to disappoint me. Recently I explored my 28 connections to an individual I wanted to meet only to find that none of the people i knew really knew this person. So I guess my million man network isn't much more than a social illusion. But now that Spock has found me I'm counting on the Vulcan mind-meld for a better experience. Facebook continues to crank the hype machine and MySpace continues to generate press. But so far the promise outpaced the marketing productivity.

I'm not sure anyone has figured out how to really make a difference in awareness, attitude or action by leveraging networks. We all suspect they have a communications and relationship building value so I predict we'll continue to play around with them, spend money on them and develop creative for them in hopes of unlocking their value for our businesses.

More Video Coming. In 2007 we rediscovered video. It was on the Internet. Yet after you've ogled YouTube and YouPorn you realize that the Swifter Girl and others got their 15 minutes of fame and then faded away. And even while we anticipate Shoe Tube, I'm not aware of any sustaining audience for web-only serials and while we've taught people to look for cool branded stuff on video sites, I'm not sure how this attention contributes to brand or demand building.

Websites are adding video, marketers are factoring video clips into every campaign launch and the number and variety of of online video sites has expanded significantly. There is some data to suggest that seeing is believing and their is clear evidence that something really wacky, bizarre or funny-looking can generate huge viral pass-along. I'm not sure though that we've figured out how to wield this tool to achieve planned results.

Search is About Optimization. Google got rich on our experiments and our inefficiency. Now we are onto the game but everyone still believes they are overspending and under-performing search. The trick is carefully analyzing the yield and using efficient tools to monitor, measure and manage lots of words or campaigns simultaneously. Look for marketers to manipulate every variable from branded words to time of day in the search to make the medium work harder and not to leave any money on the table.

Google reigns supreme and vertical search hasn't made enough of an ROI case to steal some of their zillions. Look for more varied efforts to understand the business impact of search and to carve out search tactics to achieve specific competitive, conquest and category objectives.

Email Will Still Be Enormous. By far the most cost-effective and proven medium opt-in e-mail will continue to be a medium of choice for marketers. ROI has been established in almost every industry and category though surprisingly embedded video and the use of personal URLs (PURLs) has not really caught on. Marketers will continue to police lists and refine templates to be both CAN-SPAM compliant and to finesse increasingly sophisticated SPAM filters.

Waiting for WOM. We've all experienced effective word of mouth campaigns and we've all received those ubiquitous e-mails or been directed to see some nutty video. But nobody has discerned or distilled the formula for starting or for sustaining a viral campaign that's anything more than a flash in the pan. Many of us have achieved pass-alongs of 6:1, 8:1 or 10:1. Far fewer of us have achieved ROIs with like ratios. But we'll keep on trying. It will happen for someone next year but it will most likely be a fortuitous lightening strike rather than a planned burn.   

We'll Lust After Loyalty. There are way too many one-time buyers and we all spend inordinately to get them. Points, rewards, CRM tools and tricks, incentives and experiences are all being tried to bring 'em back and turn 'em into brand advocates. This process will continue with new wrinkles in the new year.Look for more private sales, early or exclusive access to goods and services, special discounts and incentives and design-your-own rewards to find resonance among marketers looking to sell more stuff to the people they've already brought into the brand franchise.

I expect that while some of these will work, the long-standing share-of-wallet fantasies of many marketers will be frustrated by consumer's natural hedging strategies. Very few people are truly willing to put their eggs in one basket no matter how pretty, colorful or profitable that basket is or has been. Its a fundamental psychological barrier that we continuously confront and creatively attempt to overcome. Few have succeeded and few will.

2008 will be a tight economic year. With a weak dollar, a global credit crunch and the political uncertainty characteristic of an election year ROI, no matter how you define or measure it, will be used or wielded as a weapon to impact spending.

Have a happy and a healthy new year.   

 

Year-End Management Lessons

People ruin every brilliant or elegant system. And people make the world go round. Here's what I learned this year working with, managing and coaching people in business.

Ignorance Ain't Bliss. Everyone needs to know the game plan, the sequence of events and what their specific role in things is. The days of operating as if there was one brain and many arms and legs is long over. Even the newest or the dimmest member of your team needs to have a sense of the big picture and where he or she fits in the team, the company and the plan to succeed. You must orient your people and show them how to follow the map. You probably cannot over communicate anything. Forget about the notion of secrets. There are none.

Clarity Counts. Whenever you think its crystal clear; it isn't. You must explicitly lay out what you want done and how you want it done. It a world ruled by fear and anxiety, managers must lay out a clear path, set definable expectations and give regular feedback. If you can't confront people you cannot be a manager. If you don't stay close and make regular communication and course corrections your people will default to inertia and hide out waiting for you. In a world of personal accountability, its your job to lay out what you expect, how it will be measured and valued and then actually measure and value it.

Create Context. Nothing you do exists in a vacuum. Set goals, position those goals relative to the overall company objectives and the state of your marketplace. Keep your eye on the prize and orient your team to the rules of the game and how to get points on the board. Very few people succeed alone. Business is a team sport and without context, orientation and direction the team cannot effectively compete. Its easy to stick to your silo but rarely can you win by staying only in one lane.

Be Transparent. Tell 'em what you're gonna tell tell 'em. Tell 'em. And tell 'em what you just told 'em. Explain what you are doing and why. Be open to suggestions, ideas and cautionary advice. Share data and share your assumptions. Solicit input and aim for consensus. Very few people really know what they're doing and even fewer have a plan of attack. Don't keep yours a secret. Share it. Enroll people into it. Modify it and it will fly. It's much easier to get a movement going if you're willing to modify the plan and share credit.

Admit Mistakes. Accept Criticism. We all screw up. We all make mistakes. We all get faked or psyched out.Some more than others. Your ego will get you in trouble. The best leaders are their own toughest critics. The best managers find the flaws, identify the errors and learn from the mistakes first. Nobody expects perfection. Everybody aspires to a process of continuous improvement and learning.

Everything is Political. Meritocracy is a dream. We work in a political world. Once you get into middle management ranks its more about the game than about production or productivity. Watch. Listen. Try to keep your mouth shut. Watch the players make their moves. See how the sides line up and observe how the game is played and scored. Make enemies and allies strategically. You cannot win if you're not on the field so play business like chess and think 2 moves ahead.   

Watch with a Wide Angle Lens. We live in a convergent world. Good ideas come from everywhere. You can easily adapt something from a business or a field that seems way out of context. As we understand the natural world, our changing culture, the global landscape and the nanoworld better analogies, buzzwords and ideas change. Cast a wide net. Read, look, see, smell and taste everything you can. Think about all the ways you can do things smarter, faster and cheaper. Consider all the things you do and ask yourself how can things be streamlined, combined or skipped. Set aside time to process, reflect and think. Occasionally turn off and tune out. 

Laugh Often. We live in a funny world. Most of what we do is absurd. Our businesses, our politics and much of our cultural is nuts. Our lives are much more amusing and entertaining than the crap we watch on TV. Own the silliness. Make fun of yourself. Grasp the humor around you. Understand that the illusion of control and sanity is just that an illusion. Tap into the fun and the wonder of living.          

Opting Out of Catalogs

Some percent of the 19 billion catalogs mailed arrive in mailboxes where they are unwelcome and unloved. A website called Catalog Choice offers an opt-out option by offering a method for consumers to alert catalogers to take them off the list.

The website offers a 1-2-3 register, select and notify sequence of free activities. It warns consumers that it might take 10 weeks or more to get off the lists and offers to provide follow-up advocacy for those not satisfied. The site also offers catalogers a free merchant account.

In an opt-in/opt-out world this sounds normal. The DMA is on red alert, according to BusinessWeek because such a move allegedly threatens the future of cataloging and direct marketing. More likely it threatens the Direct Marketing Association who purports to have its own "do not mail list" called the Mail Preference Service and wants to be simultaneously the industry advocate and watchdog.

Sounds like a tempest in a teapot is Kevin Hillstrom's conclusion. The veteran catalog data wonk argues that more opt outs means less wasted postage, fewer annoyed prospects and more satisfied customers. His impeccable logic is based on the understanding that printing and postage, though commodities, continue to increase in price and that people who get unwanted catalogs suck up scarce resources and never buy anyway. So the savvy green approach is to encourage anyone offering an opt-out mechanism.

I'm with Kevin. No downside to another opt-out mechanism. No apparent downside to potential conflict with DMA. No downside for merchants or the direct marketing industry to reducing unwanted mail.

eCommerce 2007: Four Lessons Learned

Here's what I learned from another hectic, exciting and fun-filled year of working with b2b and b2c ecommerce brands:

1. Monitor the Flow of Business. Its an interactive world. You can change the patterns of interaction. The critical variables are page views, conversions and pathways. Watch them like a hawk and intervene aggressively at the first sign of softness. Every business has discernible patterns. Its your job to find them and do something about them. There are plenty of free tools to help you so there's so excuse not to watch the front door and the till of every online store.

Also remember that its an interactive medium. You can act in real time and respond to behaviors and choices made by your customer. Setting up thresholds or benchmarks, monitoring activity to identify spikes or variations and having Plan B hypotheses on the shelf for quick test-and-learn opportunities will make you more competitively agile.

2. Make it Easy. Its much easier to get site traffic than to convert visitors into buyers. Focus all your UI and detective skills on getting the conversion. Make everything as simple, intuitive and prominent as possible. Hip art direction is the enemy of effective eCommerce. Simple, big and colorful rule the day. Its a sight and sound medium. Use them to create emotional involvement. Site visitors still need to be oriented, reassured and directed to take the desired actions. Don't be afraid to limit the navigational choices to focus customer options and choices.

Invest in technology that adds to the easiness factor. Buy more ability to store orders and carts, ability to share orders/carts, more views that illuminate how the products look, feel or wear. Watch click streams carefully and pave prospect's way down the yellow brick road to a close. There are zillions of emerging tech choices. The only buying criterion that matters is; will it make customers find and buy easier?

3. Website as Encyclopedic Catalog. Use your website as the marquee repository of your brand and all its assets. The price of printing and postage will only go up. Use print and other ad vehicles to drive customers and prospects to the web. Be all that you can be and show all that you are on the web.

On the site provide encyclopedic detail about product features, benefits, uses, care and all your policies. You are laying out a Chinese menu of ways to anticipate, respond to or psyche out your prospective customers who come in all sizes, shapes and sensibilities. Number of pages viewed and time spent on site are the data points that index the relative level of customer engagement. Audio and video tools plus the ability to interact, review or comment all add to the experience and ratchet up consumer's engagement with your brand and your offerings.

The early evidence suggests more is better in terms of product/service information. Customers expect to research products and make preliminary sorts by visiting your site. Since you can't ever really know what gets you across the line, give them enough data and enough different dimensions of information or insight to sort you into the consideration set. If you can -- do this graphically with icons, colors, numerals or other devices that can be read, understood and acted on instantly.

4. Rely on New Media for Traffic.  SEO, blogs, affiliate programs and e-mail are driving the majority of my business. Each is becoming almost a discrete science but all are worthy of investment. Brand plays a surprisingly important role in SEO and those with less brand recognition or awareness have to be savvier buyers or spend more to vector generic keyword traffic to your site.

Every niche and segment has bloggers and with a little effort you can identify, reach and persuade them to write about you. Affiliate networks require manpower and a willingness to test-and-learn but can have remarkable returns. E-mail is the dominant drive-to-site tool, though it seems to stimulate responders to visit the site rather than drive sales of the specific items presented. If they've opted in they will tolerate much more frequency than you think; they'll just ignore the offers that don't resonate without hating you. Keep your list clean, take anyone who wants off immediately and be sure you are CAN SPAM compliant, a necessary niggly chore.   

Finding the Optimal Search Marketing Partner

Finding the right search engine partner is tough. There is no barrier to entry in this market. Brand name  agencies have no significant competitive advantage over unknown geeks madly trying to psyche out their counterparts at Yahoo or Google. Number of employees, revenue, location, number of accounts, or volume of media spending -- the usual criteria used in finding media partners -- are not particularly useful indicators of expertise or success. 

Having just hired a great, under-publicized team from Solid Cactus located in Silicon Nowhere -- Wilkes Barre, PA -- allow me to suggest three criteria for evaluating prospective search engine marketing partners.

1. Tools are Table Stakes. Managing organic SEO and pay-per-click keyword purchasing requires sophisticated software to assess where you're at, the competitive landscape and to plan, buy and manage campaigns. No tools equals no sale.

There are only a few universally used 3rd party tools like Alexa and Google Analytics, so for the most part these are homemade tools with a wide range of capabilities and an equally wide range of value to clients. And unless you have software development skills its hard to assess the claims or the code underlying these proprietary tools. Look for firms that use a mix of 3rd party and proprietary tools. See how they combine free tools with tools they've invested their own time or cash to build. Ask what the tools do. Then ask yourself if these functions actually help you work faster or smarter.

But the real insight comes when you road test the tools. Demand sample uses of the tools to understand what they do and why they'll be useful and valuable for you. If you don't learn something you don't already know or if you aren't surprised or blown away by the information they reveal walk away. Zero in on the guys who can demonstrate the benefit of the tools for you and who can show you how the tools will impact your business.

2. It's the Thinking Not the Tools. Your success is not about the tools. Too many SEO jockeys are so wrapped up in their own world that they can't focus or understand yours. There is a heavy Walter Mitty-meets Dr. Geekazoid factor among SEMers. If they can't explain it in a simple English sentence its a negative warning sign.

The best players understand business; specifically your business. They actually think for you and can map their magic to your business objectives and your budgets. Look for the team that understands your business objectives and can help translate them into the wild and woolly world of SEM. If they can't show you what you'll win in terms of traffic, cash and ROI --- forget about it.

3. Assess the Tactical Game. To win at search engine marketing you must focus on the short game. If you don't, Google laughs all the way to the bank and you end up with meaningless clicks. The game is won by carefully watching each move, calibrating words and buys, continually assessing what words people punch into search engines and what words you use to describe your merchandise or services. Played well its a fast-moving game of arbitrage.

You can squander your money in a blink. Your partners have to be in this game on several levels. You need a smart field general who sees the big picture, preferably your big picture. Then you need the digital marketing equivalent of a chess master + stock trader + bookie to concentrate, think 3 moves ahead and make your moves day-by-day and dollar-by-dollar. If you don't have somebody hunched over a laptop or nosed into their flat screen monitor thinking about how many cents to bid, which days or hours work best for you and how to spell each word you're optimizing, you are losing the game.